Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The mean count of everyday killings per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to signal better countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had over these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the least number of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of the President's safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it may hide periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.