Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
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